With just seven Championship games remaining in Pompey's 2010-11 campaign and the play-offs still being talked-up in some circles, despite defeat against Reading yesterday, I thought I would take a look at the history books to see what it has actually taken to get in to that oh so important sixth place.
What does the data show?
There have been 22 seasons to date with a second tier made up of 24 clubs – this is the 23rd – and where the play-offs have taken place to determine promotion to the top division. Yes, they really have been around that long, indeed longer!
There was one season – 1994-95 – where the team in sixth place didn't secure a play-off berth as only one team went up automatically plus one other. The unlucky team that season was Barnsley.
The most number of points required to secure 6th place since 1988-89 is 76 on four occasions. The teams and years were as follows:
1988-89: Swindon Town
1992-93: Leicester City (boooo! Pompey fans will know what I mean... ;-D)
1998-99: Bolton Wanderers
1999-00: Bolton Wanderers
Interestingly, none of the teams above secured promotion to the top flight of English football. How unlucky were Bolton Wanderers?
The least number of points required to secure 6th place in the same period is 70 on three occasions. The teams and years were as follows:
1990-91: Brighton and Hove Albion
2007-08: Watford
2009-10: Blackpool
Only Blackpool from this list were promoted.
On only six occasions out of twenty-two have teams finishing in sixth place secured promotion through the play-offs and one of those after losing the play-off final! The teams and seasons are:
1989-90: Sunderland (lost 1-0 to Swindon Town, whose goal was scored by Alan McLaughlin, but were still promoted due to Swindon Town's breaching Football League regulations, mainly financial. You can read about it here ==> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Swindon_Town_F.C. )
1991-92: Blackburn Rovers
1996-97: Crystal Palace
2003-04: Crystal Palace
2004-05: West Ham United
2009-10: Blackpool
The average number of points required to secure sixth place since the 1988-89 season is 73.4, so let's call it 74. A substantial number!
Sixth place summary 1988-89 to 2009-10 seasons
Here's a complete list, by play-off year, of teams that finished sixth, the number of points they secured and whether or not they got promoted.
2010: Blackpool 70 yes
2009: Preston North End 74 no
2008: Watford 70 no
2007: Southampton 75 no
2006: Crystal Palace 75 no
2005: West Ham United 73 yes
2004: Crystal Palace 73 yes
2003: Nottingham Forest 74 no
2002: Norwich City 75 no
2001: West Bromwich Albion 74 no
2000: Bolton Wanderers 76 no
1999: Bolton Wanderers 76 no
1998: Sheffield United 74 no
1997: Crystal Palace 71 yes
1996: Charlton Athletic 71 no
1995: Barnsley 72 not applicable
1994: Derby County 71 no
1993: Leicester City 76 no
1992: Blackburn Rovers 74 yes
1991: Brighton and Hove Albion 70 no
1990: Sunderland 74 yes, after losing the play-off final
1989: Swindon Town 76 no
What does it all mean?
What does all this tell us about Pompey's chances of securing a play-off place and gaining promotion?
Well, at the time of writing Pompey have 54 points and have seven games remaining, a maximum of 21 points.
If they win all seven games they will reach 75 points, a very big ask especially when they still have to play: Cardiff City (3rd, a), Swansea City (4th, h), Burnley (9th, a) and Norwich City (2nd, h) four teams above them three of which currently occupy automatic promotion/play-off positions.
The other three games are against: Preston North End (23rd, h), Coventry City (17th, h) and Scunthorpe United (24th, a).
Historically, with an average of between 73 and 74 points required to secure sixth place Pompey have very little room for dropping points between now and the end of the season.
So, what do you think?
Well, nobody can predict the future with any certainty. So, for a bit of fun (although it's not that funny as you will see), here are my Pompey predictions and outlook for the remainder of the 2010-11 season:
Preston North End – win. PNE are in the bottom three and despite victory yesterday over promotion hopefuls Swansea City look they look like they'll be going down to League One.
Coventry City – win. A chance to wipe away the memories of the visit to The Ricoh Arena early on in the season when the outlook for Pompey was not good.
Cardiff City – draw. Another visit to South Wales with a big away following and a draw built on breakaway football and solid defending, no snow expected though!
Swansea City – draw. The Welsh team will have a big following, it'll be a tight affair neither side wanting to make a mistake.
Burnley – win. Pompey won at Turf Moor last season and it'll be an Easter Monday goalfest with two teams looking to win and a chance for Steve Cotterill to get revenge on his old stomping ground for the home defeat earlier in the season.
Norwich City – lose. A team that has got stronger and stronger all season, they'll want to secure promotion and reverse the result of the fixture earlier in the season at Carrow Road. I expect a big awayday following from East Anglia. It'll be the last Pompey home game of the season live in front of the Sky TV cameras.
Scunthorpe United – win. The home team will be down at this juncture, it'll be party football but nothing much riding on it, Pompey will secure a win to send their travelling army of fans home happy with a whole Summer to ponder on what will happen next season. The re-building will start shortly afterwards as contracts expire and loan-signings return to their parent clubs.
What's the conclusion then?
That makes a grand total of 14 points from 21 and a final total of 68 – and that is being optimistic about the team's chances at Cardiff and Burnley.
On the face of it, although mathematically possible, unless Pompey have another fantastic, unbeaten run in to the end of the regular season the data suggests that they are going to miss out. They will most likely finish somewhere between 7th and 12th and their play off ambitions will have folded either just before or just after the Burnley game.
So, I'm predicting a top-half finish but missing out on the play-offs. I'm sure many fans would have taken that at the start of the season but it'll be disappointing nonetheless when the team has come so far and strived so hard to get in to a decent position to make a last ditch challenge.
Let's hope I'm proved wrong!
Expectation is such a funny thing isn't it? One minute you're down, the next minute you're up and at the end of the day you end up exactly where you should be: safe and secure in mid-table. Under the circumstances earlier in the season the Club will be able to reflect on a job well done.
Send me a tweet if anything above looks awry: @PompeyChicken at Twitter.com
Sources
Playfair Football Annuals 1999-2000 through to 2010-2011 (inclusive)
The Breedon Book Of Football Records 1871-2000
Update 05th April 2011
Liam Lawrence has boldly predicted that 69 points will be enough to secure a play-off berth. See the article in The News here ==> http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/sport/pompey/pompey-past/great-matches/pompey_skipper_targets_five_wins_1_2564701
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